Predictions

Outcome tokens on how a market ends, settled by the program itself.

The creator can add questions to a market while it is still taking traders. Each question has two outcome tokens. Anyone can mint a set (one of each) for 1 USDC, sell the side they don’t believe in, and redeem the winning side for 1 USDC after the market settles.

Questions

Question	Tokens
Does trader A finish above trader B?	A / B
Does trader X get liquidated?	YES / NO

Traders bet on themselves first

A head-to-head question only opens once both traders lock a duel stake from their stake vaults. The public can only mint up to that amount, so the people being predicted on always have the most at risk. Minting closes when the market starts. Liquidation questions are capped at half of the trader’s collateral.

Settlement

The program answers every question from its own state: final sleeve values and liquidations are already on-chain. Winning tokens pay 1 USDC; on a tie or a cancelled market each token pays 0.5. The winner of a head-to-head duel takes the loser’s locked stake into their own.